What happens to Trump’s IEEPA tariffs if he loses in court

All eyes will turn to the Supreme Court’s docket.

A federal appeals court has delivered another blow to President Donald Trump’s trade agenda, ruling that his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs exceeded the authority granted by Congress. In a 7–4 decision, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit found that the tariffs violated constitutional limits that reserve tariff authority for Congress. The ruling invalidates many of Trump’s tariffs, including duties on China, Canada, Mexico, and other major trading partners.

So what happens next?

Despite the court’s decision, the tariffs remain in effect for now. The judges delayed enforcement until October 14 to allow time for the Trump administration to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. If the Supreme Court agrees to hear the case, a decision could come before the end of the year. However, if the Court opts to follow its typical schedule, a final ruling would be expected no later than June 2026.

The implications of the ruling are significant.

If upheld by the Supreme Court, it could force the government to unwind billions of dollars in tariffs and potentially issue refunds to affected importers. It also casts doubt on trade deals Trump negotiated with countries like Japan, the EU, and South Korea, which were designed to reduce reciprocal tariff rates in exchange for concessions. The administration has signaled its intent to fight the ruling, with Trump calling the appeals court “highly partisan” and warning that removing the tariffs would be “a total disaster for the country.”

For importers, the legal uncertainty continues. While the court’s decision affirms constitutional limits on executive power, it leaves businesses in limbo as they await clarity on whether the tariffs will be permanently lifted or restructured through other legal mechanisms. The Supreme Court’s next move will be pivotal.

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