Holiday 2026: A Three-Part Series on Resilient, Selective Demand

Holiday 2026: Demand Is Resilient—but Selective 

Holiday 2026 is arriving with plenty of anticipation—but not with a blank check. Consumers remain committed to holiday traditions, gift-giving, and festive experiences, yet they are approaching the season with greater selectivity and purpose. Before completing a purchase, they are asking a practical question: “Is this worth it?” 

For retail executives, that question defines the opportunity. Circana’s latest holiday research points to a season of resilient demand, tighter budgets, earlier planning, and increasingly sophisticated shopping journeys. Despite affordability concerns, consumers are not walking away from the holidays. Instead, they are reallocating spending toward products and experiences that deliver clear emotional, functional, or social value. 

“Consumers are not abandoning holiday spending, they’re becoming increasingly purposeful about where and how they spend,” said Kiara Barrett, head of global thought leadership at Circana. “Throughout 2026, we’ve seen shoppers shift toward a new definition of value, one that extends beyond price alone. While affordability remains important, consumers continue to prioritize purchases that create meaningful moments, strengthen personal connections, improve everyday life, or simply deliver a sense of joy.” 

The executive takeaway

Circana expects U.S. holiday retail spending in 2026 to range from a 1% decline to a 2.5% increase compared with last year. This flat-to-modest outlook reflects both consumers’ willingness to participate in the season and their continued budget discipline. 

Net spending intent has reached a five-year high, but the average planned holiday budget has declined to $779, compared with $796 last year. That combination captures the season’s defining tension: consumers still want the joy, connection, and ritual of the holidays, but they are being more deliberate about where their money goes.

Consumers may buy fewer items, wait for a more meaningful promotion, choose a lower-cost alternative, or spend more on a purchase that feels especially relevant. In other words, the holiday shopper is not necessarily spending less; the shopper is spending with greater purpose. 

Retailers and brands best positioned to win will make their value visible early, simplify discovery, and create compelling reasons to buy when the moment is right. 

For the full outlook and supporting data, visit the 2026 Circana holiday report.